As the new trade war between China and the United States continues to escalate, Thailand's export growth may experience the lowest performance in four years, with an increase of only 0.5-1%. Researchers at the International Trade Research Center of Shangda warned that Thailand still needs to be wary of the risks posed by the influx of Chinese goods.
Nai An, director of the International Trade Research Center of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, believes that after the United States announced a 25% tariff on China’s 200 billion US dollars worth of goods, the Chinese side immediately took countermeasures against the $60 billion list of tariffs already imposed. Some US goods are subject to a 25%, 20% or 10% tariff. Tax items that have been subject to a 5% tariff will continue to be subject to a 5% tariff.
Nai'an believes that the most injured after the escalation of the new trade war between China and the United States is Thailand. As the most important export trading partner of Thailand, China is bound to reduce import demand under the new US tariff policy and will lead to an increase in export pressure. Under such circumstances, the export-oriented Thai economy will face greater pressure. According to this estimate, Thailand's export growth in 2019 is expected to be only 0.5-1%.
Against the background of the Chinese government's encouragement of exports, Thailand will face greater pressure from the influx of Chinese exports. The impact of the Sino-US trade war will also have a negative impact on neighboring countries.
The center earlier estimated that Thailand's annual economic growth rate is 3.3-3.5%, and at present it only has a 3% increase. What is even more worrying is the export performance of Thailand. If we consider the factors influencing the parties, the pessimistic situation may be that Thailand's annual export growth rate is only 0.5-1%. This will also set a new four-year low for Thailand's exports.
Of course, all this depends on whether the next consultations between China and the United States can make breakthroughs. The United States also plans to impose tariffs on China’s $300 billion worth of goods. By then, it will not only affect the Thai economy, but will even trigger the global trade economy to deviate from the right track.
At today's (14th) cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Ba Yu also asked all units to conduct risk research and formulate a response plan for the impact of China-US new tariff trade policy on Thailand's economy.